How to decide which matches to bet on over or under 2.5 goals

One of the most popular betting demands is the over/under 2.5 goal market. In this market, you are betting on how many goals will be scored – effectively more or less than 2. You can also bet on other goal markets – 0.5, 1.5, 3.5, etc. and the same advice will apply. Get today's soccer tips here.

Bet on over 2.5 and there have to be three goals or more for you to win your bet; bet on under 2.5, and there have to be two goals or fewer for you to win. But how can you predict whether any chosen match will be a good candidate for an over or under 2.5 goal bet?

You should consider some things, but one of the most important things to think about is the form of the two sides playing and especially the number of goals they have scored and conceded in recent matches.

Generally speaking, for over 2.5 matches you want to see from the recent form that both sides are scoring and conceding plenty of goals. Clean sheets at this point will put you off.

The opposite is true – if you see two teams which keep it tight and don’t score many, then the chances are this is a good opportunity to back under 2.5. Here, clean sheets are a sign that a game might be worth an under 2.5 goals bet.

There are several websites available that allow you to check any team’s recent form and some have much more in-depth statistics drilling down into the average time goals are scored and conceded, for example. Some will also give the percentage of matches that have been over/under 2.5 this season, which can also be helpful.

For over/under 2.5 betting you should be concentrating on the last five matches but homing in on the last three games. Make a note of how many goals the teams playing scored and conceded, and therefore how many goals per game there were. If at least half of those games were over 2.5 (or under), then a bet should be considered.

Consider also whether those teams tend to score or concede more goals at home or away because some teams are entirely different propositions depending on where they play.

What you are looking for is a consistent pattern of games where there were either over or under 2.5 goals – for both teams. Once you have found that, then you should shortlist that match as a potential for a bet.

However, your work is not yet done. You should always treat each match as an individual entity and not just another statistic. Have a look in more detail at those recent matches.

Was there an early red card that changed the course of the game? Was one team missing star players? Was there a quick turnaround after another match?

Refining your analysis in this way should be part of your overall betting strategy, whatever you are looking for, but by being very thorough, you can both rule out potential banana skins and also highlight possible bets you might have discarded previously.